Getting the most out of your packs part 2

I am back with the second installment of Getting the most out of your packs, to finish up the sets in type 2 with the Lorwyn block. You can see how the Time Spiral block stacks up in my post Getting the most out of your packs part 1. Now, last time we saw that buying Future Sight packs has the highest probability of payoff (or at least giving you your money back). In Future Sight, the probability of opening a tier 1, 2, or decent tier 3 rare is 1/5. Lets see if that will hold up against the Lorwyn block, shall we?

Starting with Lorwyn, we know that this set is a powerhouse. It provides the bases for decks such as Faeries, G/B Elves, and fuel for Reveillark in the form of Mulldrifter.



Lorwyn
Rares: 80
Tier 1: 8 (Sower of Temptation, Thoughtseize, Cloudthresher, Cryptic Command, Doran the Siege Tower, Garruk, and Scion of Oona)
Tier 2: 14
Tier 3: 10 (ranging from $1-$8, 4 of them $5+)
Tier 4: 48

Pretty impressive ammount of rares that fetch a minimum of $10 on the secondary market, and an even larger number of rares that would pay for the pack. Probability of pulling a cash rare: 7/20. That is almost twice the probability of Future Sight (4/20). Tarmogoyf, we have a new king. Next set to analyze: Morningtide.

Morningtide
Rares: 50
Tier 1: 2 (Bitterblossom, Chameleon Colossus)
Tier 2: 8
Tier 3: 4 (only 1 under $4)
Tier 4: 36

Now, for Morningtide, the set that really allowed Faeries to become the powerhouse that it is now. The money cards in this set are Bitterblossom ($30), Mutavault ($50), and Chameleon Colossus ($15). Now, what is the probability of opening one of these cards? Chance of ripping a rare that pays for the pack (or your deck): 7/25. This is a smaller chance than if you were to go with Lorwyn, but the chance of hitting a Mutavault are better than those of pulling a Tarmogoyf.

Now for the latest set in the T2 pool, Shadowmoor. Lets go streight to the numbers, shall we?

Shadowmoor
Rares: 80
Tier 1: 3 (Fulminator Mage, Mirrorweave, Oversoul of Dusk)
Tier 2: 17
Tier 3: 6 (none under $5)
Tier 4: 54

This set is full of cash cards. With 26 cards out of 80 that will make you anywhere between $5-$20. The probability of tearing open a pack that at least pays for itself is 13/40. Almost up there with Lorwyn, but not quite. The difference, 1/40, barely makes a difference. What should really make your decision is what kinds of cards you want out of your pack. If you want something to build a deck around, Shadowmoor has the Lieges and Mirrorweave, as well as the mana-fixing filterland, but it focuses more on strategy than bombs. If you are looking to build one of the current Tier 1 decks, such as Faeries, Elves, Big Mana, or Reveillark, look to Morningtide or Lorwyn.

Well, thats all for now folks, and good job to Gavin of MTG Salvation for winning a PTQ!